- New LPL Market Signals Podcast. In case you missed it, listen to Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and Equity Strategist & Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Buchbinder talk about pullbacks in emerging markets, the manufacturing sector’s continued strength, and other factors affecting the current economic cycle. Please join our discussion on social via #LPLMarketSignals.
- Hurricane Florence. Our thoughts go out to the millions of people that will be affected by Florence over the coming days. Many of you have also been asking what impact hurricanes can have on the markets, so on the LPL Research Blog today, we’ll offer some insights and reassurance on that front by highlighting the S&P 500 Index’s reaction to the 15 most expensive hurricanes in the U.S.
- U.S. stocks bounce back. U.S. stocks are rebounding nicely this week amid the recovery in global equities. The S&P 500 could post its fifth straight gain today, which would be its longest winning streak since before the February sell-off. Positive developments in emerging-market countries and U.S. trade officials’ efforts to arrange a new round of trade talks with China have boosted the MSCI All-Country World Index to four straight days of gains.
- Near-term growth outlook in China appears stable.After a mixed set of Chinese data on credit and lending conditions earlier this week, overnight data in China provided more of the same. However, the overall picture remains stable. Retail sales rose a solid 9% year over year, ahead of consensus forecasts at 8.8%, and industrial production, which expanded by 6.1%, also slightly outpaced estimates. The important infrastructure investment slowed to a 5.3% year-over-year increase, missing estimates for a 5.6% increase, while foreign direct investment ground to a halt with a 1.9% increase (following July’s 14.9% jump).
- Retail sales climb for a seventh month. Retail sales in the U.S. rose 0.1% last month, below July’s 0.5% increase and consensus estimates for a 0.4% gain. While retail sales growth slowed month over month, retail sales did climb for a seventh straight month, their longest streak of gains since 2014. Consistent growth in retail sales reflects the health of the U.S. consumer, emboldened by fiscal stimulus implemented earlier this year. Control-group sales, which are used to calculate U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), increased 0.1% for a seventh straight month of gains. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of GDP, so it is an important barometer for overall economic health.
Monitoring the Week Ahead
- Retail Sales (MoM, Aug)
- Import Price Indexes (MoM, Aug)
- Export Price Indexes (MoM, Aug)
- Industrial Production (MoM, Aug)
- Eurozone Trade Balance (Jul)
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Index data obtained via FactSet
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