Macro View

Daily Insights

  • New LPL Market Signals Podcast. In case you missed it, listen to Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick and special guest Equity Strategist and Portfolio Manger Jeffrey Buchbinder talk about pullbacks in emerging markets, the manufacturing sector’s continued strength, and other factors affecting the current economic cycle. Please join our discussion on social via #LPLMarketSignals.
  • First PPI decline in 1.5 years. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.1% in August, its first decline since February 2017. PPI’s unexpected decline last month stemmed from a second-straight 0.1% decline in services, while prices of finished goods remained unchanged. Overall, PPI (excluding food, energy and trade) climbed 2.9% year over year, its fastest pace since at least 2014, indicating that the more volatile components have weighed down producer prices recently. While PPI provides critical context on input prices, tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index report could be more telling about the state of inflation in the U.S. economy. Overall, we prefer to focus on core Personal Consumptions Expenditures and wages, and both of those measures tell us there is ample time before inflationary pressures weigh on output.
  • Job openings, quit rate hit new peaks. The number of U.S. job openings increased to 6.94 million in July, a record high and above consensus estimates of 6.68 million, according to the JOLTS report released Tuesday. Higher job openings signal a healthy labor market with motivated employers. The more interesting detail (to us) was the quit rate, or voluntary quits as a percent of separations, which climbed to a 17-year high. An increasing number of workers quitting their jobs can put upward pressure on wages, boosting inflationary pressures in the economy.
  • ISM points to future economic health. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) just posted its strongest reading in 14 years. What does that mean for future economic health? Later today on the LPL Research blog, we highlight the details of the latest ISM PMI report, and show how ISM PMI has been a reliable forecast for the U.S. economy.

Monitoring the Week Ahead

Click Here for our detailed Weekly Economic Calendar

Wednesday

  • PPI Report (MoM, Aug)
  • Federal Reserve’s Beige Book (Aug)
  • Eurozone Industrial Production (Jul)
  • Eurozone Employment Report (Q2)
  • Japan PPI Report (Aug)

Thursday

Friday

  • Retail Sales (MoM, Aug)
  • Import Price Indexes (MoM, Aug)
  • Export Price Indexes (MoM, Aug)
  • Industrial Production (MoM, Aug)
  • Eurozone Trade Balance (Jul)

 

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Index data obtained via FactSet

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